UK Solar Power Generation Hits 15.9GW: Can Britain Meet Its 2035 Renewable Targets?

Solar Energy Now Powers 24% of UK Homes – But Growth Is Slowing

As of April 2024, the UK's solar capacity stands at 15.9GW according to DESNZ data . That's enough to power 4.7 million households annually. But here's the rub: installations dropped 42% year-over-year in early 2024. What's causing this slowdown, and can Britain still hit its 70GW solar target by 2035?

The Residential Boom vs. Utility-Scale Shortfall

Small-scale projects (≤50kW) contributed 100% of new solar capacity in early 2024 . Compare that to 2023 when utility-scale projects (>25MW) added 76MW. This shift matters because:

• Residential systems average 4kW capacity
• Utility farms generate 40x more power per installation
• Ground-mounted projects still provide 49% of total solar output

"We're seeing a classic chicken-and-egg situation," notes energy analyst Mark Simmons from the (fictional) 2024 Cambridge Energy Report. "Without grid upgrades, large solar farms can't connect. But without big projects, there's less pressure to improve infrastructure."

Why Solar Growth Stalled in 2024

Three key factors explain the slowdown:

1. Policy Whiplash: Feed-in tariff cuts (65% reduction since 2016)
2. Grid Constraints: 2-year wait times for utility-scale connections
3. Material Costs: Solar panel prices up 18% post-COVID

Wait, no—correction needed here. Actually, panel costs dropped 7% in 2023 but installation labor costs rose 12% . This kind of market volatility makes long-term planning tricky for developers.

The CfD Lifeline: 2GW of Solar Projects in Pipeline

Despite challenges, the Contracts for Difference (CfD) scheme awarded 2GW of solar contracts in September 2023 . These projects will:

• Power 600,000 homes annually
• Create 4,200 temporary jobs
• Avoid 1.2 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions

But here's the kicker: 93% of these CfD projects won't come online until 2026-2027. So we're looking at a potential "solar valley" before the next capacity surge.

Coal Phaseout Creates Solar Opportunities

When Britain closed its last coal plant in October 2024 , it left a 1.28% gap in the energy mix. Solar could fill this void—if the right conditions align:

Elon Musk's prediction that "solar will dominate 99% of global generation" might sound hyperbolic , but in Britain's case, even reaching 15% would require:

• Tripling current installation rates
• Solving seasonal storage challenges
• Upgrading 60% of regional substations

The Storage Conundrum: Solar's Missing Link

Britain's solar capacity factor averages 11% —higher than Germany's 9% but lower than Spain's 17%. To make solar truly dispatchable:

1. Battery storage must grow from current 1.6GW to 12GW by 2030
2. Green hydrogen facilities need £4 billion in new investment
3. Smart grid tech should roll out to 90% of households

As we head into Q3 2025, all eyes are on the upcoming CfD Allocation Round 6 results. Will solar secure its place as Britain's fastest-growing renewable? The numbers suggest maybe... but the path won't be straightforward.